On the evening of October 13th, China National Heavy Duty Truck released its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2023. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 625 million yuan to 695 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 75% to 95%. Among them, from July to September, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 146 million yuan to 164 million yuan, a significant increase of 300% to 350% year-on-year.
The company stated that the main reason for the performance growth is driven by factors such as overall improvement in macroeconomic operations and a rebound in demand for logistics heavy trucks, combined with the strong momentum maintained by exports, and the recovery situation of the heavy truck industry is obvious. The company continues to improve product quality and competitiveness, accelerate product optimization, upgrading, and structural adjustment, accurately implement marketing strategies, and achieve good growth in production and sales volume, further enhancing profitability.
1、Overseas markets become the second growth curve
In the third quarter of 2023, China National Heavy Duty Truck (CNHTC) maintained a strong growth momentum and continuously increased its market share, further consolidating its leading position in the industry. According to data from China Automobile Association, from January to September 2023, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group achieved sales of 191400 heavy-duty trucks, a year-on-year increase of 52.3%, and a market share of 27.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to the same period in 2022, firmly ranking first in the industry.
It is worth noting that the overseas market is the main driving factor for China’s heavy-duty truck industry, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has a particularly significant advantage in the overseas market. From January to September, it achieved exports of 99000 heavy-duty trucks, a year-on-year increase of 71.95%, and continued to maintain its strength. The export business accounts for over 50% of the company’s sales, becoming a strong growth point.
Recently, China’s independent brands of heavy-duty trucks have significantly improved their position in overseas markets. The combination of factors such as increased infrastructure demand from multiple emerging economies, the release of backlog of rigid transportation demand in overseas markets, and the increase in the influence of independent brands has significantly increased the export sales of domestic heavy-duty trucks.
GF Securities believes that since the second half of 2020, the supply chain has taken the lead in restoring a breakthrough opportunity for China’s heavy truck brand. The cost performance ratio supports the long-term export growth logic, and word of mouth communication may continue to contribute to the positive impact. It is expected to maintain a good momentum in Central and South America and the “the Belt and Road” countries, and gradually break through other markets, or become the second growth curve focused by Chinese brand commercial vehicle enterprises.
2、The industry’s positive expectations remain unchanged
In addition to the overseas market, factors such as economic recovery, consumption boost, strong demand for gas vehicles, and the renewal policy of the fourth national vehicle have laid the foundation for the domestic market, and the industry still maintains positive expectations.
Regarding the development of the heavy-duty truck industry in the fourth quarter of this year and in the future, China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation expressed optimistic expectations during recent exchanges with investors. China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC) stated that in the fourth quarter, driven by the gas vehicle market, the proportion of traction vehicles in the domestic market will reach over 50%, with gas vehicles accounting for a higher proportion. In the future, the proportion of traction vehicles will steadily increase. The company believes that gas vehicles will remain the mainstream of the market in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, and will be reflected in both the tractor and truck markets. The low gas prices of gas vehicles bring low costs to users and increase the replacement demand of existing fuel vehicle users. At the same time, the construction vehicle market will also improve in the fourth quarter due to the impact of relevant national policies on real estate and infrastructure projects.
As for the prospect of industry recovery, CNHTC also said that with the gradual return of social economy to normal, the implementation of various national economic stabilization policies, the restoration of consumer confidence and the acceleration of fixed assets investment growth will drive the economic growth to stabilize. The natural renewal brought about by the industry’s ownership, the demand growth brought about by macroeconomic stabilization and growth, and the rebound in demand after the market’s “oversold”, as well as factors such as accelerating the renewal of vehicles in the fourth stage of the national economy and increasing the proportion of new energy ownership in the sixth stage of the national economy, will bring new additions to the industry’s demand. At the same time, the development and trends of overseas markets have also played a good supporting role in the demand and development of the heavy truck market.
Multiple research institutions are equally optimistic about the development prospects of the heavy truck industry. Caitong Securities believes that the year-on-year growth trend of heavy truck sales in 2023 is expected to continue. On the one hand, economic fundamentals are gradually recovering, which is expected to drive freight demand and heavy truck sales growth. On the other hand, exports will become a new growth point for the heavy truck industry this year.
Southwest Securities is optimistic about industry leaders with high performance certainty, such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation, in its research report. It believes that with the stable and positive domestic economy and the active exploration of overseas markets by mainstream heavy truck enterprises, the heavy truck industry will continue to recover in the future.
Post time: Nov-24-2023
